Update: No Solo

jasonrohrer · 2020-02-14 04:22:12

I've got murder on my mind. I was taking a look at the life logs recently, and saw a somewhat normal murder rate of around 6%. Then I ran the analysis a different way, and computed the murder victimization rate. This is the percentage of active players on a given day that are the victims of at least one murder. I ran this analysis on Thursday, February 5, and I was shocked by what I found: a whopping 25% of active players were murdered at least once on that day. Turns out that this was an anomalous peak, but other recent days weren't that much lower, as seen in this graph:

This analysis motivated some of the changes last week to kill waiting times and curse visibility, and you can see the minor effect of those changes toward the end of this graph. But still, I wasn't entirely sure what was going on.

Mid-week, I added a new kill log to the server, letting me see who was landing the kill hits, whether they were solo or part of a posse, and who was being saved via healing. This log did not paint a pretty picture. Since the log was set up on Wednesday, there have been 174 kills, 153 of which were solo killers, acting alone. There were only 21 group kills, and 34 instances of players being saved by healing. Yes, that's 87% solo kills.

And what's the problem with solo kills? Well, a more detailed analysis of one day's log showed that 62% of the solo kills were done in cold blood, unprovoked by previous murder, while only 20% of the group kills were done in cold blood.

That brings us back to why killing is in the game in the first place. Why not just remove it entirely? Because you need to have a way to "vote someone off the island" who is violating village rules. Otherwise, laws become impossible. Killing isn't the only kind of possible griefing, and removing killing entirely makes everyone powerless to stop those other kinds of griefing.

But if you really are voting someone out of your village by killing, and that's the point of killing, solo killing really has no role to play. If everyone agrees that this person should go, you don't need to kill them solo. You can form a posse and kill as a group.

Solo kills are unilateral actions where there is no group consensus. Most of the time, I'm guessing, solo kills are simply griefing, full stop.

Over the past two years, I've added loads of adjustments and limitations to solo killing in the game. Now we have a panoply of warning mechanisms and advantages for the victim. You GASP, the killer looks and sounds angry, you can track the killer off-screen, the killer must wait 12 seconds, and the killer runs more slowly than you. In practice, given all these advantages for the victim, solo kills should be all but impossible. But I've seen it myself: the victim just standing there for 12 seconds, like a sitting duck.

This means that most victims of solo kills are new players who don't know how these warning systems work. This means that most victims of killing are brand new players. That is really bad. Being killed is one of their first experiences in the game.

And like I said, the presence of solo killing does not help with the philosophical point of killing in the game---it doesn't help us vote someone off the island as a group.

So why not remove it entirely?

There are still two cases of solo killing that are dear to my heart.

First, we have the wilderness situation, which I've come to call the Two Hermit Problem. If you're one-on-one in the wilderness, and someone is bugging you, I want you to be able to protect yourself. I want you to be able to say, "scram," and mean it. Even if the person isn't bugging you, the fact that you CAN kill each other is part of the magic of the game. You can kill each other, but choose not to, and that's beautiful.

Second, we have the guarding scenario. With 1-v-1 killing, a guard with a bow can get a bead on a would-be intruder outside the gate, and then open the gate to let people pass through, while preventing the intruder from passing through the guarded area.

The way killing works now in the game, I've been able to preserve the first case, the Two Hermit Problem, but I've had to sacrifice solo guarding, at least for now.

Here are the changes:

In order to kill, you need to form a posse of the minimum size, given the population in your area. In higher population areas, that size is 3 people. But in places with less than six people, the posse size is half of the area population, rounded up. The area is a 30-tile radius around the killer. So if there are only two of you out there, 1v1 killing is still possible. But in a mini-camp of three people, two of you need to conspire against the other in order to kill.

This min posse size is capped at 3, which is what you need in higher population areas.

When you try to kill someone, you still go into murder mouth mode, but you also get a DING message explaining the minimum posse size in your area.

With this change in place, we'll see what happens to the murder rate over the next few days.

Chestburster · 2020-02-14 05:37:09

What about the fact that in many situations weapons can be scarce and not immediately available to those affected, or how they require a tool slot to use now? What about how it is likely that the majority of people won't be willing to participate, or will be new and not understand these mechanics like you said?

Has it been considered that there may be many situations now where a team of 3 griefers will have completely free reign to murder people without them being able to fight back? 3 people is not a hard minimum either. If one person gets killed, it'll then be a 4 person minimum to "vote" the griefers off versus the 3 they need to grief, and so on.

Last edited by Chestburster (2020-02-14 05:38:45)

jasonrohrer · 2020-02-14 06:49:33

Have you successfully landed a solo kill against a team of 3 griefers as a means of "fighting back?" How could you? They'd have plenty of warning, and you'd run slower.

This change has been live for four hours, and during that time there has been only one single kill, and it was a solo kill out in the wilderness.

Before this change, today, there were around 7 kills every hour.

Punkypal · 2020-02-14 06:52:58

Jason

I'd like to point out that some of those "cold blood" solo murders are people asking someone to murder them and being obliged. I still don't understand the logic behind it but I see it happen frequently. I'd estimate 10% or more of your solo murder victims ran around begging people to stab them.

Grim_Arbiter · 2020-02-14 07:20:56

I think this will definitely eliminate those single murders, but at the same time I feel like we've lost a freedom due to bad characters.

I recall a life a long time ago where I made fun of someone who was proud of planting a gigantic field of berries. When I began to joke about the compost requirements of the village he snapped, and stabbed me of course. I was avenged right after by someone else who knew how ridiculous the fields were, but still I REMEMBER that life and it will stick with me. I was mad then, but I laugh and reminisce about it now.

I feel like that situation has been eliminated. Personal arguments can't be solved by force unless you say "meet me outside of town" which is either a good thing or a bad thing depending on who you are. I know certain people are going to be pissed that they cant "stab this dumbass shearing all the sheep" and certain people are going to like it immensely because that drama won't affect bystanders as much.

Tldr

I can see positives and negatives here.

JasonY · 2020-02-14 07:53:03

Add content

Chestburster · 2020-02-14 08:46:35

jasonrohrer wrote:

Have you successfully landed a solo kill against a team of 3 griefers as a means of "fighting back?"

Yes, several times in fact. Griefers run slower after they've stabbed someone, and can be picked off this way when they are farther away from their group.

This is also very easily accomplished with two people as well.

If a grief team starts wreaking havoc it'll likely be a more isolated case. I was just asking if you've thought about it.

Last edited by Chestburster (2020-02-14 08:56:02)

Guppy · 2020-02-14 10:00:22

With this in place, can you please just ban the organized griefers that ruin the game as a group and get a big advantage because of this update?

Last edited by Guppy (2020-02-14 10:01:07)

StrongForce · 2020-02-14 13:49:30

This makes a lot of sense. Great change!

Cantface · 2020-02-14 14:43:23

I appreciate the changes but I'm worried about group killers teaming up more often. I really hope this doesn't have that side effect because forming a posse against griefer players is hella more difficult for ppl that aren't on discord. Even with hierarchies getting people to form a posse doesn't always work out so...what do we do then? I don't want to have to beg people to help stop murderers and waste precious time, I liked being able to take out solo-killers tbh. Now I don't know if the griefer will run to the outskirts (unlikely) or just run around camp until someone does something to stop them?

Or maybe NOW people WILL posse up more to take out groups murdering ppl. I'll have to play to find out lol.

Last edited by Cantface (2020-02-14 14:46:46)

Flachzang · 2020-02-14 15:17:08

Interesting. However, now you need consent of the whole town to tattoo someone. A built in exception for this would be nice.

Cantface · 2020-02-14 15:19:30

Flachzang wrote:

Interesting. However, now you need consent of the whole town to tattoo someone. A built in exception for this would be nice.

NOOOOOOO Tattoos are broken again??? D:

jasonrohrer · 2020-02-14 16:43:03

Whoops, yeah the tattoo thing is broken.

Will fix that next week.

https://github.com/jasonrohrer/OneLife/issues/543

Regarding groups, since the update, there have been only 3 kills in 14 hours, and one of them was healed. Out of the two kills that resulted in death, one was out in the wilderness (solo), and the other was a group kill with a posse of 3.

Recall that before the update, there were 6 kills EVERY hour, or 140+ per day.

Grim, I definitely hear you that some freedom and "instant drama" has been lost. I'm still thinking about what to do about that... However, that solo kill in a personal argument has (hopefully) been replaced with conspiracy, which is much more dramatic and memorable, in the end.

You and your in-village friends jump the guy you've been arguing with.

Cantface · 2020-02-14 18:06:59

I was born to a tan fam my name Max, big town with gingers too. As I got older I noticed about three gingers, one old guy with horsecart/bps with weapons one ginger ponytail woman with a knife/sword and one man with bow/arrow. I thought for certain we were screwed but for some reason they never attacked the center of town all at once, they were probably killing on the outskirts but I didn't see any red murder pings either! Plus someone got the horsecart back from the old dude, who died and then the two remaining would be murderers were left struggling I think lol.

It was my first game since the update so far so good but I think people are TRYING to figure out groups. For better or for worse.

mensrea · 2020-02-15 17:13:12

Appears to be a buff for murdering and non-murdering griefers. Trying to convince two people a griefer exists and training them to aid you, then expecting to be able to catch a griefer on horseback in twelve seconds seems optimistic. Finding two people to murder grief with is logically easier because if they say yes, then they likely already know the mechanics of murder.

And less murder overall means less griefers are stopped. Murder is the only means to stop a griefer.

Jamie · 2020-02-16 01:00:06

mensrea wrote:

Appears to be a buff for murdering and non-murdering griefers. Trying to convince two people a griefer exists and training them to aid you, then expecting to be able to catch a griefer on horseback in twelve seconds seems optimistic. Finding two people to murder grief with is logically easier because if they say yes, then they likely already know the mechanics of murder.
And less murder overall means less griefers are stopped. Murder is the only means to stop a griefer.

Usually they pre-plan on discord and get born to the same town so it's even easier.

Flachzang · 2020-02-23 13:01:42

Does the 12 seconds timer start when the first player has initiated the posse or does the timer start when all necessary players have joined the posse?

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#1 2020-02-14 04:22:12

Update: No Solo

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Re: Update: No Solo

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