"Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

Kinrany · 2018-04-21 14:29:46

Were there any IRL societies that really failed because they just couldn't afford to exist any longer?

I assert that societies usually collapse due to external black swan events, mismanagement, or social conflicts, and that most resources are either replaceable or practically infinite. And even when a resource really begins to run out, social systems collapse due to rising costs before that happens.

The best two counterexamples I've seen so far (thanks to BlueRock):

Late Bronze Age collapse: one of the possible causes is a "general systems collapse": for economic reasons weapons became too expensive, and states could no longer maintain control over their provinces.
It's an example of a situation where the society fails as an indirect consequence of a resource becoming scarce over time.

Fall of the Western Roman Empire: looks like they were crushed by other tribes because their government was bad at governance and economics.
Joseph Tainter's alternative view is that the Empire's society was too complex for its tech level, the overhead of maintaining it slowly eating away all the spare resources they've got by killing barbarians and taking their stuff.
Another view is that there was no fall, the Roman and Germanic civilizations simply merged together. The government failed, but not the society.

So far my conclusion is that human societies are, uh, resourceful enough to not let resource shortages turn into huge problems, and that coordination problems and external black swan events are much more common.

Last edited by Kinrany (2018-04-21 14:45:33)

The Person In Yellow · 2018-04-21 14:55:57

I think Rapa Nui and the Mayans had trouble from deforestation or other resource related problems, there was no sign of external invasion and they both seemed prosperous with their construction of giant stone statues. The area of mesopotamia also accidentally salinated their farms since they did not understand that using water from Tigris and Euphrates had been putting a tiny amount of salt into the fields.

aldraw · 2018-04-21 15:04:31

OHOL societies aren't empires or even cities, they're small villages.

Villages can easily collapse when resourcesvrun out. A modern example would be ghost toens formed when a large factory closes. A bad harvest could kill a village in medieval times.

Kinrany · 2018-04-21 18:07:01

IIRC Rapa Nui wasted their forests building the statues, and kept building more hoping that that'll somehow fix their problems.

YAHG · 2018-04-21 20:47:29

I read about Mesoamerican societies over and over using all the lumber within range of their cities by foot and then having to give up on the location and go elsewhere.

KucheKlizma · 2018-04-21 21:30:04

In ancient times people were foragers and gatherers migrating from place to place, until they learned to cultivate crops and animals basically to be able to stay in the same place.

This game makes no sense from a realistic standpoint, as clay/ceramics had a much greater role, after which came bone tools, after which came bronze tools, after which came iron tools, after which came steel tools.
(P.S. I skipped flint as it's somewhat included)

Furthermore cultivating crops and animals isn't a simple task. Wild varieties of crops are usually highly inefficient, you have to go trough a lot of generations to get it genetically modified to work as a cultivated crop. Same goes with animals.
There's much more crops than carrots and wheat. There were dogs. Hunting was much more common (hunting is a waste of time for the most part in OHOL).

I don't think people made "backpacks" in ancient time (though it's hard to tell things about materials that decay), likely saddlebags were much more common. Furthermore they were able to carry things on horses via saddlebags, not simply carts.

In the real world there's also rivers, oceans, lakes, fishing and stuff. A well tapped into an underwater river shouldn't really dry up, unless an earthquake causes the flow to shift. There's also rain and rainwater and rain wells. All we have in OHOL are ponds and useless wells that don't really do much.

There's also commerce - which is impossible/meaningless in OHOL because there's no real steady civilization and insufficient things to produce.

Doesn't make sense to compare, as there's not much common ground to draw between OHOL and real life.

I can prolly keep going. TL:DR this game is as far from RL as possible. DST is probably more realistic.

Last edited by KucheKlizma (2018-04-22 11:45:31)

Tane · 2018-04-22 09:50:55

Kinrany wrote:

IIRC Rapa Nui wasted their forests building the statues, and kept building more hoping that that'll somehow fix their problems.

No one is actually sure why they decimated their landscape, but the prevailing theory is warfare. The lesson was well learned though, for the next almost thousand years their story shaped culture in the pacific.
Even after Tonga and Samoa was established and New Zealand was colonized the story of what happened at Rapa Nui inspired Nunuku's Law at Rekuho (Chatham Islands), which was where none of the people who lived there warred with each other for the simple fact that they would destroy all their resources.
Its a pretty interesting fact about it IRL.
Also, the Maori from New Zealand found after 6/700 years about extinction after the Moa, 10ft tall birds, were hunted to extinction. Since then there were also cultural taboo's about hunting to extinction too. Some which carried over into a general no hunting rule

Ferraus · 2018-04-22 10:38:45

Kinrany wrote:

IIRC Rapa Nui wasted their forests building the statues, and kept building more hoping that that'll somehow fix their problems.

I remember learning that too. The thing is Easter Island is small enough that you can see it all from the top for its central mountain. So, the person who cut the last tree down knew it was the last tree and did it anyway.

Potjeh · 2018-04-22 11:52:06

KucheKlizma wrote:

I don't think people made "backpacks" in ancient time (though it's hard to tell things about materials that decay), likely saddlebags were much more common. Furthermore they were able to carry things on horses via saddlebags, not simply carts.

Otzi the iceman was found with a wood framed backpack, so I'd say backpacks are older than horse domestication. They're the most sensible way to haul stuff over long distances (basket in hand gets cumbersome real quick), so it makes sense to me that they were invented very early.

TrustyWay · 2018-04-22 12:09:24

Ferraus wrote:

Kinrany wrote:
IIRC Rapa Nui wasted their forests building the statues, and kept building more hoping that that'll somehow fix their problems.
I remember learning that too. The thing is Easter Island is small enough that you can see it all from the top for its central mountain. So, the person who cut the last tree down knew it was the last tree and did it anyway.

They didn't die from cutting all tree, they died from internal wars I think, this is fairly new how we discovered they died. But still starvation has been more a problem in civilized places (that we don't have in the game lol). Look at mao zedong, between 25 and 50 millions dead of starvation because of bad political chooses, not because people eat too much.

Last edited by TrustyWay (2018-04-22 12:13:28)

Kinrany · 2018-04-23 07:40:10

There was that book, Doomed City, about a city that moved over time because they kept running out of water. I love it and I wish there was a game where you could explore the abandoned parts of the city that stretch as far as you can travel. Still, it was a slow continuous process, they never crashed.

akoopatroop · 2018-04-28 15:38:51

The sapling nerf has me thinking about this and it's only true in the sense of heat-death-of-the-universe.

Everything runs out ONCE a society's use rate exceeds replacement rate.

Saplings shouldn't run out. But they should get rare as the population explodes and *excessive* use happens. And it should be possible to do things to permanently destroy sources of saplings. But stasis should be possible too.

Forcing things to run out when there's only one naked Eve is making it virtually impossible to develop civilization.

Waves of newbies or kept-babies causing problems as exactly on point, though.

jasonrohrer · 2018-04-28 19:36:17

This game is not a historical simulation.

If people didn't make backpacks in ancient times, that doesn't matter.

There will never be a bronze age in this game.

This is a game about modern people starting over from scratch.

breezeknight · 2018-04-28 19:41:48

jasonrohrer wrote:

This game is not a historical simulation.
If people didn't make backpacks in ancient times, that doesn't matter.
There will never be a bronze age in this game.
This is a game about modern people starting over from scratch.

that clarifies

& it probably calls for trouble

Kinrany · 2018-04-28 21:55:18

jasonrohrer wrote:

This game is not a historical simulation.
If people didn't make backpacks in ancient times, that doesn't matter.
There will never be a bronze age in this game.
This is a game about modern people starting over from scratch.

That's what I thought.

Still, I'm not just making an observation that running out of resources never happened IRL. I'm saying that it probably couldn't happen at all, not even to vaguely humanoid aliens. That societies are in general too fragile to survive small changes in the environment.

kubassa · 2018-04-28 22:06:28

Kinrany wrote:

jasonrohrer wrote:
This game is not a historical simulation.
If people didn't make backpacks in ancient times, that doesn't matter.
There will never be a bronze age in this game.
This is a game about modern people starting over from scratch.
That's what I thought.
Still, I'm not just making an observation that running out of resources never happened IRL. I'm saying that it probably couldn't happen at all, not even to vaguely humanoid aliens. That societies are in general too fragile to survive small changes in the environment.

Wow where did you get your schooling?

Roman empire is a great example of a civilization that died because it was too big and over consumed. IRL.

akoopatroop · 2018-04-28 23:04:29

Not historical sim, totally fine. From a game-play perspective, civ dying because of being too big and over consumed is great. Irreparably destroying things by accident, not so much. On the other hand, if things reset semi-regularly or the world is infinite, then it's not really "irreparable".

Maybe I'm stuck on the idea of innovation being both enabled and demanded by advancing technology. As opposed to forced through artificial scarcity of root resources.

I'm worried that scarcity is going to increase busy work without getting to the interesting effects of trades and cooperation. Communication is already such a problem in game (writing might help, we'll see) and it's the thing that enables human societies to develop.

Maybe I just need to think of OHOL as forum + game environment, rather than wishing the game could support true communication.

nofaz · 2018-04-28 23:57:33

kubassa wrote:

Wow where did you get your schooling?
Roman empire is a great example of a civilization that died because it was too big and over consumed. IRL.

Roman Empire ended because infighting, and not really ended at all. At some point you had 4 Emperors, the last Emperor also was the first Pope, Curia was the Roman tribunals and still is the church law. They just stop controlling people by force using an army (that could be used to overthrown the current Emperor) and started using faith. And 300 years later the idea was replicated in the other side of Mediterranean

Last edited by nofaz (2018-04-28 23:59:24)

kubassa · 2018-04-29 00:03:55

nofaz wrote:

kubassa wrote:
Wow where did you get your schooling?
Roman empire is a great example of a civilization that died because it was too big and over consumed. IRL.
Roman Empire ended because infighting, and not really ended at all. At some point you had 4 Emperors, the last Emperor also was the first Pope, Curia was the Roman tribunals and still is the church law. They just stop controlling people by force using an army (that could be used to overthrown the current Emperor) and started using faith. And 300 years later the idea was replicated in the other side of Mediterranean

LOL not realy end at all.... What?

It end and died and everything crumbled to the ground so many years passed before it was ever re colonized. You must be educated in USA. Empire horded food. Only fed its soldiers. People did not like that in the end. Over consumed my friend. It had nothing to do with faith. Please read a history book.

Last edited by kubassa (2018-04-29 00:04:33)

nofaz · 2018-04-29 00:33:42

kubassa wrote:

LOL not realy end at all.... What?
It end and died and everything crumbled to the ground so many years passed before it was ever re colonized. You must be educated in USA. Empire horded food. Only fed its soldiers. People did not like that in the end. Over consumed my friend. It had nothing to do with faith. Please read a history book.

If you want to really know history, you have to read hundreds of books, one is not enough, and skim all the propaganda

I live in USA but was raised in Europe, at some point I studied to become a catholic priest, and had access to an amazing library. Were you got your information?

Debate the arguments, shaming the person only show your lack of knowledge "You must be educated in USA."
Been living here for last 5 years and had the pleasure to meet alot of educated people, your shaming its not even valid one.

Roman Empire survived almost 500 years with free bread and games, to stop their citizens from revolt, slavery work was the reason for this. Just the Iberian Peninsula could produce enough grain for more than half the Empire, why you think they build all those roads, to transfer goods inside the Empire. The collapse was caused by several reasons and not a particular one. But this was the main reason:

"For most of this period, emperors were not chosen on the basis of their ability or honesty, but simply because they were born in the right family. For every great leader, such as Augustus, there was a tyrant like Caligula. For every Claudius there was a Nero; for every Vespasian, a Domitian."

At some point they prioritize undermining other families to the point none could raise a decent army, and they started to contract mercenaries, for example the Suevi invaded Hispania (Iberian Peninsula) and Rome paid the Visigoths to defeat them, after they defeated the Suevi King they turned against Rome and ruled the Iberian Peninsula until the Muslims invaded them

Last edited by nofaz (2018-04-29 00:36:11)

Alleria · 2018-04-29 00:39:28

A good modern example is the island of Nauru near Australia. In 1986 they had the worlds highest GDP from their rich phosphate deposits (from bird poo, similar to guano). However, due to poor resource management, it ran out and now they're completely reliant on Australian aid.

Morti · 2018-04-29 00:44:54

jasonrohrer wrote:

This game is not a historical simulation.
If people didn't make backpacks in ancient times, that doesn't matter.
There will never be a bronze age in this game.
This is a game about modern people starting over from scratch.

SPOILER ALERT PLEASE!

Alleria · 2018-04-29 01:06:10

Morti wrote:

jasonrohrer wrote:
This game is not a historical simulation.
If people didn't make backpacks in ancient times, that doesn't matter.
There will never be a bronze age in this game.
This is a game about modern people starting over from scratch.
SPOILER ALERT PLEASE!

I was about to tell Jason that he was wrong, then I realised he can't be wrong - he's the dev...

nofaz · 2018-04-29 01:09:29

Alleria wrote:

I was about to tell Jason that he was wrong, then I realised he can't be wrong - he's the dev...

He's the only and true God, people were worshiping carrots, cactus etc... and the Apocalypse came and made life more difficult so people don't have free time to waste worshiping silly things

Last edited by nofaz (2018-04-29 01:10:42)

Alleria · 2018-04-29 01:20:32

nofaz wrote:

Alleria wrote:
I was about to tell Jason that he was wrong, then I realised he can't be wrong - he's the dev...
He's the only and true God, people were worshiping carrots, cactus etc... and the Apocalypse came and made life more difficult so people don't have free time to waste worshiping silly things

I'm not a carrot pleb so I still have plenty of time to worship berries and cacti.

One Hour One Life Forums

#1 2018-04-21 14:29:46

"Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#2 2018-04-21 14:55:57

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#3 2018-04-21 15:04:31

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#4 2018-04-21 18:07:01

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#5 2018-04-21 20:47:29

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#6 2018-04-21 21:30:04

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#7 2018-04-22 09:50:55

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#8 2018-04-22 10:38:45

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#9 2018-04-22 11:52:06

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#10 2018-04-22 12:09:24

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#11 2018-04-23 07:40:10

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#12 2018-04-28 15:38:51

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#13 2018-04-28 19:36:17

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#14 2018-04-28 19:41:48

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#15 2018-04-28 21:55:18

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#16 2018-04-28 22:06:28

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#17 2018-04-28 23:04:29

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#18 2018-04-28 23:57:33

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#19 2018-04-29 00:03:55

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#20 2018-04-29 00:33:42

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#21 2018-04-29 00:39:28

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#22 2018-04-29 00:44:54

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#23 2018-04-29 01:06:10

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#24 2018-04-29 01:09:29

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

#25 2018-04-29 01:20:32

Re: "Everything runs out": has it actually ever happened?

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