Visualization of lineage duration over time

thundersen · 2018-12-30 01:05:09

I'm currently playing around with the life logs and this is one of my first results. Lineage duration is calculated as the time between Eve birth and the point where the last of her descendants becomes infertile.

I think the plot is pretty self-explanatory, so here are just some random points:
- Well over 90% of all lineages die in less than one hour. I filtered them out to speed up plot generation.
- The Steam release has made >24h lineages possible. Again? I haven't looked into older data yet.
- The award for the longest lineage of over 35h in this time period goes to EVE NEZAT who was born on server 2 at 13:53:57 UTC on November 17. She was the ancestor for a whooping 2135 descendants.
- It begins in October, because that's when I started playing. I can add a longer version later.
- I used Python for downloading and processing the logs. I could share the code, if anybody's interested.

I could imagine looking into the reasons for lineage deaths next, like 0 girls, murders, etc.. If you're interested in that too, I would like to hear ideas on which reasons to consider.

Towns are probably more interesting than families, but lineages are what we have data for. I've been toying with the idea of calculating town locations from the birth and death coordinates in the logs. Not quite sure about how to do that, but it should be possible to identify clusters, which could be classified as towns, if they remain stable over time or reappear. I've never done something like that though... Thoughts?

Last edited by thundersen (2018-12-30 12:03:02)

Greep · 2018-12-30 01:28:27

Too lazy to do the work myself, but assuming you have death time and coordinates... To give a rough estimate of towns, maybe you would divide death spots into buckets of 200x200 which would estimate town sites. Then sort the death times in each bucket, and town ages would be streaks of time where the time to next death is less than some period of time (Time until map reset? I think it's 6 hours? Actually it might be longer). And then just record how many and how long each streak is in each bucket, dropping any streak below X.

You could do better than that, but it'd probably be more work than worth it since I think the above way is so close to good enough that you'd just waste time.

Last edited by Greep (2018-12-30 08:14:36)

CrazyEddie · 2018-12-30 02:14:33

THIS IS AMAZING

CrazyEddie · 2018-12-30 02:19:08

thundersen wrote:

Well over 90% of all lineages die in less than one hour.

This is not surprising, exactly, but the scale of it is pretty staggering. 90% ?? Wow.

Being Eve is hard, sure, but man people sure are bad at it.

Last edited by CrazyEddie (2018-12-30 02:19:34)

betame · 2018-12-30 02:47:30

Woah!

I'd love to help where possible.
I'm a noob at Python, but your code could help me/others learn and in turn help.

My current interests (as on your previous thread) lie in parent/litter statistics, and how to make that experience better.

Town survival is a super relevant statistic with the apocalypse 2.0 update. But with the eve-town-revival ban, I'd guess towns normally only have one lineage now.

My takeaways from the graph:
-wow! Steam surge acted like I thought. The active pop seems to be leveling back out at 120; triple the reach!
-Wondering if the AVG lineage length stays somewhat constant; Steam may have made the 24 hr lineage possible only because of the shear number of attempts.
-Looks like a large effect from player skill comparing the first few weeks of steam release.

Greep · 2018-12-30 02:58:59

Yeah that's pretty funny how the huge population surge initially had almost no effect on linage length xD

Gabby · 2018-12-30 03:50:20

This just makes the apparent need for the latest update more confusing to me. It seems like lineages were indeed already dying out super quickly even with the Eve "exploit" and without the apocalypse to wipe out the towns.

betame · 2018-12-30 04:04:23

Gabby wrote:

It seems like lineages were indeed already dying out super quickly even with the Eve "exploit" and without the apocalypse to wipe out the towns.

Before the update, any time an eve died of old age the next eve would spawn in the most active town due to a bunch of bizarre mechanics interacting unintentionally. So a long lasting town was made of many eve lineages strung together.

lionon · 2018-12-30 07:57:59

thundersen wrote:

- The award for the longest lineage in this time period goes to EVE NEZAT who was born on server 2 at 13:53:57 UTC on November 17. She was the ancestor for a whooping 2135 descendants.

The number of descendants is the area, the longest would be the number of generations. You could have 2000 descendants in a few generations if you get a baby every 2 minutes...

lionon · 2018-12-30 07:59:43

CrazyEddie wrote:

thundersen wrote:
Well over 90% of all lineages die in less than one hour.
This is not surprising, exactly, but the scale of it is pretty staggering. 90% ?? Wow.
Being Eve is hard, sure, but man people sure are bad at it.

Might clean up by obvious suicides tough. Like remove all lineages that are shorter than 5 minutes.

PS: It may not be the Eves fault, but Gen 2, for example one eve run of mine, found a nice spot, took care of my babies, yet they all died due to inexperience or simply suicided right away on purpose without /die , when I was 40 and all kids dead, I suicided.

Last edited by lionon (2018-12-30 09:06:24)

thundersen · 2018-12-30 12:09:53

lionon wrote:

The number of descendants is the area, the longest would be the number of generations. You could have 2000 descendants in a few generations if you get a baby every 2 minutes...

Yes. I edited my mention of EVE NEZAT to clarify that the length of her lineage was over 35h.

lionon wrote:

Might clean up by obvious suicides tough. Like remove all lineages that are shorter than 5 minutes.

I agree that in a proper analysis you'd have to differentiate a bit more. For the purpose of this plot, it doesn't make a difference though. Filtering all <1h just reduced the size of the data by >90% which makes the plot much quicker to generate and reduces the file size. Putting them in there does nothing except adding a blue bar et the bottom...

thundersen · 2018-12-30 12:23:26

betame wrote:

[....] code could help me/others learn and in turn help.

Glad you liked it! I'll create a GitHub repo eventually. Ping me, if it takes too long. I can send you a zip in advance.

betame wrote:

Wondering if the AVG lineage length stays somewhat constant; Steam may have made the 24 hr lineage possible only because of the shear number of attempts.

Yeah, I'm wondering too, if it's the number of attempts or maybe the higher number of players during the "night" making 0-girls scenarios less likely than before.

betame wrote:

Looks like a large effect from player skill comparing the first few weeks of steam release.

Yeah, that was also my impression in game. It quickly improved after the first few days of utter madness.

thundersen · 2018-12-30 12:54:23

Update. I added servers 5, 6, 7 and the months August and September:

The longest lineage is now EVE SAGE II's on server 7, which continued for more than two days and 7 hours from November 23rd to the 25th. That was a Discord-coordinated operation to teach new players though, if i recall correctly.

Obviously maximum lineage duration had been going down continually in the months before the Steam release.

Gabby · 2018-12-30 12:55:21

betame wrote:

Gabby wrote:
It seems like lineages were indeed already dying out super quickly even with the Eve "exploit" and without the apocalypse to wipe out the towns.
Before the update, any time an eve died of old age the next eve would spawn in the most active town due to a bunch of bizarre mechanics interacting unintentionally. So a long lasting town was made of many eve lineages strung together.

Yeah, I get it. I just don't get it why this is a bad thing when so many lineages can't go past third gen.

CrazyEddie · 2019-01-16 04:28:58

This came up in Discord today, and I'm curious if you could generate something similar for the entirety of the game's run.

thundersen · 2019-01-16 22:35:39

CrazyEddie wrote:

This came up in Discord today, and I'm curious if you could generate something similar for the entirety of the game's run.

Here's a plot for servers 1 through 4 from the start of the life logs:

I had to limit it to only the first 4 servers due to memory constraints on my laptop. So the very long lines maintained by dedicated groups on the higher servers are not shown (Boots, the server 7 operation after the Steam release ending on Nov 25 and a 36h lineage ending on April 11). And of course player numbers were higher during the few days after the Steam release.

All in all this seems pretty constant. There's a valley right before the Steam release, starting even before the iron nerf ( which happened end of October/beginning of November). Probably because of so few players at that time? And the Steam release led to more long lasting lineages, but I guess that's just because there are just so many more lineages in general.

CrazyEddie · 2019-01-16 23:26:04

Woot! Thanks!

One Hour One Life Forums

#1 2018-12-30 01:05:09

Visualization of lineage duration over time

#2 2018-12-30 01:28:27

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#3 2018-12-30 02:14:33

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#4 2018-12-30 02:19:08

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#5 2018-12-30 02:47:30

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#6 2018-12-30 02:58:59

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#7 2018-12-30 03:50:20

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#8 2018-12-30 04:04:23

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#9 2018-12-30 07:57:59

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#10 2018-12-30 07:59:43

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#11 2018-12-30 12:09:53

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#12 2018-12-30 12:23:26

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#13 2018-12-30 12:54:23

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#14 2018-12-30 12:55:21

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#15 2019-01-16 04:28:58

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#16 2019-01-16 22:35:39

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

#17 2019-01-16 23:26:04

Re: Visualization of lineage duration over time

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