Murder, Somewhat Quanitified

wondible · 2019-05-20 12:27:52

I've been watching some stats. Murder rate has been a particular point of interest with the recent changes. Took a little bit to get going, but we've finally surpassed the original unrestricted knives.

This is average number of kills per life that reaches at least age 8 (old enough to use a knife) Numbers are a bit abstract, one way to think of it would be: for every 100 lives that could kill, just under 14 kills were made yesterday. Seems steady state is more around 5.

The kill rate is affected by both kill count and number of lives - large numbers of new players cause some of the dips, even though some of them go on murder sprees. Here is kills in perspective:

And since kills pretty impossible to see there:

MultiLife · 2019-05-20 13:39:46

Wow. Dat is one heck of a spike. Total lives are low and yet kills are in a steady climb from what I can see.
What I've heard, that was to be expected...

There is something hilarious in the definition of the newest update: Come Together (with swords).
Indeed. That's how a lot of people are coming together. With swords.

futurebird · 2019-05-20 13:54:46

Well this makes me feel a bit less like a wilting daisy for taking a break from the game waiting for this to calm down. There really are a lot more murders. And let’s be clear more murders are not by itself a bad sign. But, if those murders are mostly greifing and people trying to pre-empt griefing by killing anyone who looks different or who talks different— that isn’t really something I want to be in the middle of when I play a game (get that feeling enough IRL, thanks. )

Anyway can we *prove* that whole spike isn’t just Tarr’s fault?? (I’m kidding.)

Last edited by futurebird (2019-05-20 13:55:43)

Wuatduhf · 2019-05-20 13:59:07

While this is a significant spike, it's obvious to see that from the Steam & /die spike, that things will taper off. I don't think they'll return to where they were, they're going to stay quite high compared to how the new baseline of deaths changed following the Steam + /die spike.

futurebird · 2019-05-20 14:07:23

Do those spikes go down because people stop killing or because people who get killed stop playing? Increases in server population seem to go with increasing not just in the amount of killings but also the rate. So, are newer players being slaughtered and they don’t come back?

Amon · 2019-05-20 14:16:44

I think it's because killing becoems less of a novelty action is why it goes down.
If people went away by being killed, it would not prevent people from getting killed. But I can see the correlation between why somebody would not wanna play heh...

futurebird · 2019-05-20 14:24:05

yeah I think you are right, Though I’d like to see these numbers vs server population rather than total lives.

lychee · 2019-05-20 14:44:51

The first plot is numbers vs. server population.

I think there will definitely be a higher baseline level of murders from now on ever since Come Together — putting so many (hostile) people in close proximity is bound to have that result, and I don’t think it will quite return to the levels from before.

I think it would be interesting to breakdown family murders, outsider murders, and eve murders once a little more time has passed.

futurebird · 2019-05-20 14:55:16

Total lives isn’t the same as server population?

DestinyCall · 2019-05-20 15:06:24

So not just my imagination. I felt like I was witnessing a lot more violence and death, but wasn't sure if I was exaggerating the experience because I find it so unpleasant.

Whatever · 2019-05-20 15:27:27

thanks for the stats

jason about the war sword update:

jasonrohrer wrote:

Now, I know that, for some reason, you all think these changes will make the game more violent and horrible. Not sure why.

Grim_Arbiter · 2019-05-20 16:56:36

lychee wrote:

The first plot is numbers vs. server population.
I think there will definitely be a higher baseline level of murders from now on ever since Come Together — putting so many (hostile) people in close proximity is bound to have that result, and I don’t think it will quite return to the levels from before.
I think it would be interesting to breakdown family murders, outsider murders, and eve murders once a little more time has passed.

Pretty much this. I think the stats would almost be as high if we didn't have the swords. People had open season with being close and they would have killed regardless

wondible · 2019-05-20 18:33:27

futurebird wrote:

Total lives isn’t the same as server population?

This is grouped by day, so it is total lives in that day. There is probably a little wiggle where a person could be a allocated to one day but a murder actually happened on the next when it falls over a day boundry.

wondible · 2019-05-20 18:37:41

lychee wrote:

I think it would be interesting to breakdown family murders, outsider murders, and eve murders once a little more time has passed.

Eves would be straightforward. I don't currently do any family tracking in the stats project, but I think I see a way it could be done.

futurebird · 2019-05-20 19:13:38

wondible wrote:

futurebird wrote:
Total lives isn’t the same as server population?
This is grouped by day, so it is total lives in that day. There is probably a little wiggle where a person could be a allocated to one day but a murder actually happened on the next when it falls over a day boundry.

Well, I'd define server population as either the highest and lowest value from each day or the average number of people on the server at any given time over the course of a day. (think box and whisker plot...) This is going to correlated positively with the number of lives from that day... but a group of experienced peaceful players could have a rather high server population and a low number of lives, while less experienced players who kept rolling for a new life could inflate the number of lives. An experienced player might live one life per hour maybe a little less and play for like 3 hours. A new player could rack up 20 lives in that time.

Whatever · 2019-05-20 19:22:36

best would be KILLS / TIME ALIVE
time alive is the time of all played lives together

Spoonwood · 2019-05-20 19:42:48

The murder rate won't go back down to previous levels, because foreigners can't get cursed to donkey town. Jason removing controls from discouraging griefing may make for the most worrisome change that he has made. A griefer getting murdered isn't enough to get such a person to think twice, at least not usually, while Donkey Town is, as shown by Da False's repeated requests for his curse score to get reset.

futurebird · 2019-05-20 19:48:13

Spoonwood wrote:

The murder rate won't go back down to previous levels, because foreigners can't get cursed to donkey town. Jason removing controls from discouraging griefing may make for the most worrisome change that he has made. A griefer getting murdered isn't enough to get such a person to think twice, at least not usually, while Donkey Town is, as shown by Da False's repeated requests for his curse score to get reset.

Generally, I agree. The total kills may fall, but the kills per life may keep rising since killing the outsider is the new "meta" and there isn't any reason for people who want to kill off towns to stop.

futurebird · 2019-05-20 19:52:19

OHOL has always been more violent than NYC was in the early 80s based on these graphs. It's a level of violence that is probably only found during wars. Only there aren't any coherent conflicts going on... It's a game so it *should* be a bit more wild than normal life. But, if we want to be invested in these lives emotionally rather than just treating them like plopping in another quarter to "continue" I don't think the murder rate can be very high. Frankly, it makes murders less shocking and important.

I think an ideal level would be that in about 1/4 lives you might witness a murder in your town. In 1/200 lives you might be the victim or killer. That lower rate make it a much bigger deal when it happens and something that you don't forget.

lychee · 2019-05-20 20:06:19

It would be interesting to do a probably to witness murder statistic — calculated by who living was born in the location around a murder — and might get a sense of how often people are witnessing murder even if they aren’t directly a part of it.

wondible · 2019-05-20 21:35:46

Whatever wrote:

best would be KILLS / TIME ALIVE
time alive is the time of all played lives together

Interesting idea, but the graph doesn't feel different enough to bother posting.

ArcticFox · 2019-05-21 04:41:49

The other day I was playing several lives, and was murdered in almost every life. Did not get to old age once, if I remember correctly. It was insane, never before have I witnessed this amount of murder in this game. And I didn't do anything to bring this upon myself, expect one life where foreigners attacked our town and I was defending it, then sure, I understand why I was killed by the foreigners.
Ways I got murdered that day (the ones I remember):
- Just born, arrow to the chest
- Minding my own business, foreigner killed me with sword (this happened more than one time)
- Got accused of something I did not do, got stabbed before I could explain it was not me (we all looked the same so maybe I looked like the one who actually did something wrong)
- Random griefer run past me and stabbed me for no reason (this too happened more than once if I remember correctly)
- Defending town, foreigner killed me with sword
(- One time I wasn't murdered but I was born to a mom who was running with a bloody knife, people chasing her. I starved)

And of course on top of this, I witnessed many many people murdered in towns. It felt like not only the foreign people with swords were blood thirsty that day, but also own family members were running with knives and bows more than before. I just wanted one good life where I would be productive and grow old, but it seemed impossible.

breezeknight · 2019-05-21 08:17:54

OHOL as it is now, especially after the last couple of updates (fences, skin color, war sword) attracts only a certain quality of players
the retention of players takes place only among those who are mildly interested in building a little, don't mind lack of tools for organization, can put up with cumbersome crafting but are highly interested in killings (griefing, mod usage, genocide, for fun, revenge, roleplay) & oc don't mind being killed now & then

every other player is gone

- - -

Last edited by breezeknight (2019-05-21 08:18:40)

Psykout · 2019-05-21 14:16:53

breezeknight wrote:

OHOL as it is now, especially after the last couple of updates (fences, skin color, war sword) attracts only a certain quality of players
the retention of players takes place only among those who are mildly interested in building a little, don't mind lack of tools for organization, can put up with cumbersome crafting but are highly interested in killings (griefing, mod usage, genocide, for fun, revenge, roleplay) & oc don't mind being killed now & then
every other player is gone
- - -

I used to play at least a life a day, on my days off sometimes 3+ lives. Since these latest changes I play one life maybe every few days or less, and thats getting further spread out as warmonger topics and posts about killing all outsiders creep into the forums.

Really used to enjoy playing the game a lot. I used to praise the game for making players think about group efforts, the need to forget about self purpose and put the family first. At first I wanted more time in a family because I wanted to see what I was working on be completed. Then it became that I just wanted to do more for my family on that day, give them a better chance to survive. The next day, move on to another family that I felt the same about.

Now it seems like most people are in it for themselves. People are fueling negative interactions with eachother long before positive. The general censuses is that you are better off trapping Eves, and wiping out your neighbors because the chance they might do the same. Towns die of neglect because players male swords and forge out bloodthirsty, leaving just a couple or none at home to take care of things.

This is not the kind of game anymore that I feel good about putting my attention into. Rather heartbreaking.

DestinyCall · 2019-05-21 15:26:36

I see a similar thing happen with new players in Rust. They start playing on one of the public servers, expecting to be able to exist in relative peace with other players as long as they are polite and don't go looking for trouble. They start figuring out the basic controls so they can gather some supplies to get started crafting shelter. Then they get gunned down while walking around their spawn point, naked and only carrying a rock. After getting killed a dozen different ways, you either get really good at killing other people before they have the chance to kill you, find some friends so you can kill other people more efficiently together, or stop playing Rust. It is a "survival game" with dangerous wildlife, resource collecting, and hunger mechanics, but the primary threat is other players. And the main strategy is to get strong enough to steal from anyone who is too weak to defend what they have gathered. Raiding solo players or small groups is much more lucrative than gathering everything yourself. No defense is perfect and your base is always vulnerable to attack, so it is better to play offensively, rather than defensively.

Anyone who wants to build something like civilization in Rust will be deeply disappointed, because the meta is "might makes right" and "shoot first". If you encounter another player and you are not on discord with them, you are better off putting a bullet in their head before they put one in your back. Even if they are a naked new player asking for help.

Things are not that bad in OHOL yet. But the war sword is pushing the meta in that direction.

One Hour One Life Forums

#1 2019-05-20 12:27:52

Murder, Somewhat Quanitified

#2 2019-05-20 13:39:46

Re: Murder, Somewhat Quanitified

#3 2019-05-20 13:54:46

Re: Murder, Somewhat Quanitified

#4 2019-05-20 13:59:07

Re: Murder, Somewhat Quanitified

#5 2019-05-20 14:07:23

Re: Murder, Somewhat Quanitified

#6 2019-05-20 14:16:44

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#7 2019-05-20 14:24:05

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#8 2019-05-20 14:44:51

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#9 2019-05-20 14:55:16

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#10 2019-05-20 15:06:24

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#11 2019-05-20 15:27:27

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#12 2019-05-20 16:56:36

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#13 2019-05-20 18:33:27

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#14 2019-05-20 18:37:41

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#15 2019-05-20 19:13:38

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#16 2019-05-20 19:22:36

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#17 2019-05-20 19:42:48

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#18 2019-05-20 19:48:13

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#19 2019-05-20 19:52:19

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#20 2019-05-20 20:06:19

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#21 2019-05-20 21:35:46

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#22 2019-05-21 04:41:49

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#23 2019-05-21 08:17:54

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#24 2019-05-21 14:16:53

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#25 2019-05-21 15:26:36

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