Myths and facts about why player numbers are dropping over time

jasonrohrer · 2019-10-11 19:23:04

Here's the actual data. The blue curve is the number of unique players who played the game each hour (NOT the simultaneous player count, but uniques per hour). The red curve is the moving average of those hourly unique player counts, binned over the past 7 days.

Bumps in mid Jan and mid Feb 2019 are from when some big video or stream channel covered the game. Otherwise, you can see a clear, gradual, downward trend that has been going forever and isn't particularly "caused" by an update.

You can try to look for patterns in this graph, but that's most likely just noise. For example, it looks like player numbers went up a bit right after the war swords were introduced.

The reality is that for a game that's 19 months old, this gradual decline just happens. Most of the people who are going to buy it have bought it at this point, and people generally don't play the game forever, so the population declines over time.

Thaulos · 2019-10-11 19:37:09

We still get a ton of players. But retention is pretty bad.

I would guess we could see a huge resurgence of players if the game improved on that matter. Even with it being 19 months old.

Last edited by Thaulos (2019-10-11 19:37:20)

Dodge · 2019-10-11 19:55:23

New updates and negative steam reviews dont affect player numbers?

How surprising i thought fences and swords where causing the game to die from reading the forum posts, but maybe it's the rift then

More seriously the numbers are still going down which means the game cant retain new players for some reason(s)

Would be nice to have some real feedback on that and not biased forum posts by a few users.

My guess is the crafting system prevents new players from just starting the game and playing right away but instead they have to go trough walls of text and unintuitive gameplay so they eventually leave the game since they are not able to do much and get bored/annoyed.

New players just want to craft stuff when they start the game even if what they craft is not necessarly useful at least they see a result from their action.

With the tool tip currently you have to TAB trough all the recipes to see what the object you're holding interacts with now there is arrows but it can still be very tedious to press TAB multiple times until you see an arrow an combine the object you have in hand with the other one.

What if pressing TAB the first time when you hold an object would show arrows over all the objects the object you have in hand interacts with, so new players could just craft random objects and learn this way how to craft.

Even if the object they craft is not necesarly useful to the current situation they get a sense of contributing instead of feeling useless and only consuming ressources, which is not entertaining and can become frustrating really fast.

Also they will eventually learn to make useful stuff by combining objects around them, but currently holding an object and seeing everything it interacts with is a tedious process.

jasonrohrer · 2019-10-11 20:15:41

Well, for some things, there would be loads of arrows bouncing when they hold something...

Dodge · 2019-10-11 20:30:17

jasonrohrer wrote:

Well, for some things, there would be loads of arrows bouncing when they hold something...

Are you sure about that?

In one screen there is only a limited amount of objects, all these objects dont necessarly interact with each other directly

Also filter the duplicates dont need 10 arrows on 10 berry bushes one is enough

Then there should be a reasonnable ammount of arrows like maybe 2-3 on screen

Coconut Fruit · 2019-10-11 20:41:51

I may be wrong but I think we lose much more new players than old players, so I don't believe in phrases like "people quit because that or that update", but it may be the case for new players tho. New players may feel bored in high tech towns where they can't find a job where they would actually feel like they helped surviving family - at my beginnings I hated playing in high tech towns, I always /died after seeing engine pump well - there was no rift yet, so I could play in low tech towns.

I'm also interested in a graph showing after how many hours people quit playing. I feel like most people quit right after buying the game because that's how I felt at beginning, I felt like quiting after my first game.
If I didn't find out how to make private server and teach by myself, I would probably quit. Same with zoom mod, if I didn't find out about it, I would probably quit too. Letting people know about onetech.info also should be a thing IMO.
This notification about new players is helping, but I feel like it's not enough. Game feels much better when you can see entire town, I wish zoom was implemented to the game, I think it would encourage players to stay. There was no single person who didn't like the idea of zooming, and I tell about zoom every new player I teach.

DestinyCall · 2019-10-11 21:42:07

My suggestion would be including a "solo play" option in the menu. A smaller version of the main game that new players could use to learn about the game and how to craft befor jumping into the main game.

In theory, the tutorial is supposed to serve this purpose, but since it resets when you die and you must run through the whole thing to get back to the smithing challenge, it doesn't really work for true solo play. I realize you can set up a private server or join a low pop server to be alone, but new players are not always ready to go to that kind of level for a new game. Even installing zoom mod is a huge step for some people. Ideally, some sort of solo play option would be offered as part of the main game to help people get passed the initial steep learning curve AND to give more experienced players a quiet spot to build and play around with certain game features, like crafting high tech tree stuff and village design.

This game has a lot of low population servers. Would it be possible to set one up as a solo play server?

For solo play, I would be looking for three things - no one else gets to be there unless I invite them (twinning should still work), I can get reborn back at a location of my choosing (home marker would be ideal for this), and my work from past lives will remain from life to life (so I don't have to start over from scratch, even if I don't play for a few days or a week).

Some players will want to dive right into the full OHOL experience, but I think a lot of new people would welcome the opportunity to learn the controls and practice crafting basic items without worrying about someone stabbing them for eating too many berries or standing too close to the forge.

Gogo · 2019-10-11 23:20:25

Today I bought OHOL, before that I played You Are Hope (mobile version of OHOL). YAH has 'the book' that shows and explains crafting system. It's the table that shows on the left side of the screen, when you tap on any object or hold something, player can actually see all the combinations for crafting and scrolls them fast. For me it was an easy way to learn, I think learning crafting in OHOL would be painful to me (especially that english isn't my native language).

What's also better in YAH is genetics, I prefer family tree than table with players. I love YAH and I'm impressed with that game, I wanna give try with PC version because texting is too slow on smartphone and I like roleplaying and drama.

Last edited by Gogo (2019-10-11 23:22:21)

Dantox · 2019-10-12 00:39:44

The crafting system is one big factor that i believe makes the newest players to quit the game (that and the fact they dont know what to do once they are starting to prosper) is that the crafting system can become very complex and inconsistent.

I believe that Minecraft tackles this problem very good with the crafting book that starts unlocking crafting recipes once you gather some of the ingredients to make a tool or item, however for OHOL i would make it being unlocked once you craft it yourself for the first time to encourage players teaching other players. (It would also encourage people not having to have an open tab on the wiki!)

DestinyCall · 2019-10-12 00:48:58

That might work for teaching someone to bake pies, but how would you get someone to teach you to make a loom?

FulmenTheFinn · 2019-10-12 01:43:18

All games die out over time, but often don't see such a sharp decline in so little a time.

I think fundamental flaws in the design of the game are to blame. Lack of discount sales to increase exposure to new players and the development of the game apparently being essentially a one-man-show probably does not help. There also doesn't seem to be a lot of advertising (monetary constraints?), but it might be that I've just not come across it.

Judging by the permanent stagnation of the playerbase, and what I know from other games, I'd say the train to get the game right to keep it alive for years has long since left the station.

Btw, how many hours does the average OHOL player clock in before abandoning the game? Last I heard it was around 44h, but this was a while back.

DestinyCall · 2019-10-12 02:06:17

Realistically, the game won't actually die when we get down to 10-20 players on average. We will just not have enough people to maintain multiple towns. Even two families would be pushing it.

With any luck, the game will still be fun to play even at that point. I just don't foresee any bustling mega-cities in OHOL's future when I look at that chart.

Coconut Fruit · 2019-10-12 02:27:45

FulmenTheFinn wrote:

I think fundamental flaws in the design of the game are to blame. Lack of discount sales to increase exposure to new players and the development of the game apparently being essentially a one-man-show probably does not help. There also doesn't seem to be a lot of advertising (monetary constraints?), but it might be that I've just not come across it.

I feel like we get new players every while. The problem is that probably many of them don't stay for longer.

Whatever · 2019-10-12 03:48:34

chart for a game called factorio: https://steamcharts.com/app/427520#All
(its more than 3 years old)

how is this possible?

DestinyCall · 2019-10-12 03:58:05

Whatever wrote:

how is this possible?

Have you played Factorio? It's an awesome game.

Check out the steam charts for Stardew Valley. It's four years old.

https://steamcharts.com/app/413150

10,482 playing an hour ago

Kind of makes me get an urge to go start a new farm and grow some turnips. God, that game is so addictive and wholesome.

Saolin · 2019-10-12 04:56:13

Based as my own experiences as a mother in this game, there are still plenty of new players; there is still a market to potentially be captured.

DestinyCall wrote:

Check out the steam charts for Stardew Valley. It's four years old.
https://steamcharts.com/app/413150
10,482 playing an hour ago
Kind of makes me get an urge to go start a new farm and grow some turnips. God, that game is so addictive and wholesome.

I've been taking a break from the game to satisfy my own annual fall urge to play stardew valley.

With the right decisions there is potential this game could stabilize long term. That's not say it should imitate stardew valley. I think this game is most similar to don't starve, but with it's own unique and more complex elements.

Last edited by Saolin (2019-10-12 05:08:01)

pein · 2019-10-12 07:04:13

Its not one upgrade particularly, its all of them

They didn't bring meaningful change, its just fixing non-existent problems while allowing more problems.

People can get hooked up on the game, but they will run out of content, unique activities.

The tech tree is not varied enough and not too long. also, there is no content update, no new clothes, no new animal mechanics, no decor items.Even old elements that could be fun and useful aren't fixed like ever. like mine carts and rails.

DestinyCall · 2019-10-12 07:18:16

Don't Starve is another game that I haven't played in a while, but I should probably revisit at some point. Several new updates have come out so there's a bunch of new content I haven't played around with yet. I have the "don't starve together" expansion. I might try to convince one of my friends to play co-op it with me. It's always more fun when you try to not starve with other people, in my experience.

The steam charts for Don't Starve is kinda interesting. The main chart for Don't Starve shows much lower activity than Don't Starve Together. I would have thought the base game would be higher. Maybe the stats get broken up due to the expansions. Kind of hard to tell. Or maybe it is just that much better when you play with friends.

https://steamcharts.com/app/219740#All

https://steamcharts.com/app/322330#All

.....

Of course, if you really want to lose all faith in humanity, just go look at the steam chart for Rust.

https://steamcharts.com/app/252490#All

It has been trending steadily upward for SIX YEARS. Jesus ...

Spoonwood · 2019-10-12 10:41:17

jasonrohrer wrote:

Here's the actual data. The blue curve is the number of unique players who played the game each hour (NOT the simultaneous player count, but uniques per hour). The red curve is the moving average of those hourly unique player counts, binned over the past 7 days.

Consistent decline in a game that only one person has designed for a while now. No, you can't rule out some updates as having such effects by this graph, as those changes take time and aren't immediate. Swords lead to more griefing immedaitely, which might have had some interest for some players to grief... but only for so long, thus implying that swords could have improved playercount in the short term, but made that player count dip in the long term. Additionally, those updates were supposed to lead to a better game, weren't they? Oh, but the consistent decline just indicates that the game has gotten worse.

People have already pointed out that your talk about consistent decline being inevitable for *this* young of a game is nonsense. I'll add two more games to the list which disprove your assertion:

Oxygen Not Included: https://steamcharts.com/app/457140#All

and

Rimworld: https://steamcharts.com/app/294100#All

Seriously Jason, quit trying to make excuses.

Posts like this only serve to show that you would rather argue with your playerbase than develop a game *for* them. It's no wonder that you have consistently declining numbers when you think you know what your playerbase wants better than what they tell you.

Last edited by Spoonwood (2019-10-12 10:42:45)

Dodge · 2019-10-12 12:47:41

Spoonwood wrote:

...

Are you blind?

Numbers where dropping even before steam release and all the updates you are REEEE'ing about.

Even when it was "the good old days" numbers where droping.

The_Anabaptist · 2019-10-12 13:08:27

Did I miss this week's update notice? Did we not get an update because you were too busy picking at this old scab? Honestly, I don't remember a single thread in the last two weeks with players seriously bemoaning this topic. It is as if you are inviting drama and satisfying your itch to be right all at once.

Back to content creation if you have nothing better to do...

The_Anabaptist

Spoonwood · 2019-10-12 13:29:02

Dodge wrote:

Spoonwood wrote:
...
Are you blind?
Numbers where dropping even before steam release and all the updates you are REEEE'ing about.
Even when it was "the good old days" numbers where droping.

I see upticks before the steam release and also in December, January, and February on the red line after that. You're the one who might want to check your vision here. There are no upticks similar to the one in Februrary since then. The temperature overhaul was in mid-February: https://onehouronelife.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=5304 There are no upticks of similar size since then. Take another look at that graph Dodge, because you're the one who missed something here.

Spoonwood · 2019-10-12 13:36:41

Also, the red line continuously goes down after the 'life limit' for a month straight. Funny Jason, but the numbers here actually contradict your position and support that of the critics of the 'life limit' downgrade. Oh, and it goes down continuously for MORE than a month after The Rift. Such a continuous decline wasn't happening before the temperature overhaul, and that's clear by the half of a month upticks since then.

Also, 'big channels' covering or not covering a game may well end up as part of the result of the updates. 'Big channels' aren't likely to cover a game that they think has bad updates. In other words, your 'updates' of late, which are better termed downgrades, probably aren't attracting big channel players.

Dodge · 2019-10-12 13:40:35

Spoonwood wrote:

...

The denial is unreal on your part, sometimes i wonder if you are a troll...

A 2 year old could see that the numbers are going down.

Stop talking about some random tiny spikes of players, you dont even know what they are related to, maybe some big youtuber made a video and a bunch of people bought the game.

If you dont like the updates that's your right but stop talking bullshit and stating them as facts.

Graph is going down go buy some glasses.

Spoonwood · 2019-10-12 16:03:43

Dodge wrote:

Spoonwood wrote:
...
The denial is unreal on your part, sometimes i wonder if you are a troll...
A 2 year old could see that the numbers are going down.

So what?

Dodge wrote:

Stop talking about some random tiny spikes of players, you dont even know what they are related to, maybe some big youtuber made a video and a bunch of people bought the game.

Such spikes aren't happening anymore. They haven't happened since the temperature overhaul. Not to the degree that the did in December, January, and early February. Take a look at those for the sake of reality.

Dodge wrote:

If you dont like the updates that's your right but stop talking bullshit and stating them as facts.
Graph is going down go buy some glasses.

Again, look at the graph and take account of the clear downward and continuous falls. Those happen directly after life limit and the rift. For like half a month. No, the whole time period that Jason posted is not marked by continuous half a month falls like that. There was another half a month continuous fall shortly after the temperature overhaul.

Thing about this graph is that if you look closely it actually refutes Jason's assertions. But then again, doing that would require an acknowledgement that such updates have not been good for the game.

One Hour One Life Forums

#1 2019-10-11 19:23:04

Myths and facts about why player numbers are dropping over time

#2 2019-10-11 19:37:09

Re: Myths and facts about why player numbers are dropping over time

#3 2019-10-11 19:55:23

Re: Myths and facts about why player numbers are dropping over time

#4 2019-10-11 20:15:41

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#5 2019-10-11 20:30:17

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#6 2019-10-11 20:41:51

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#7 2019-10-11 21:42:07

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#8 2019-10-11 23:20:25

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#9 2019-10-12 00:39:44

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#10 2019-10-12 00:48:58

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#11 2019-10-12 01:43:18

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#12 2019-10-12 02:06:17

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#13 2019-10-12 02:27:45

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#14 2019-10-12 03:48:34

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#15 2019-10-12 03:58:05

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#16 2019-10-12 04:56:13

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#17 2019-10-12 07:04:13

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#18 2019-10-12 07:18:16

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#19 2019-10-12 10:41:17

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#20 2019-10-12 12:47:41

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#21 2019-10-12 13:08:27

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#22 2019-10-12 13:29:02

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#23 2019-10-12 13:36:41

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